CMBA CREF Key Takeaways 2025

Western States CREF Key Takeaways

Last week, our producers attended the CMBA’s Western States CREF Conference in Las Vegas, where they met with many of our major lending partners and participated in industry panels. We gained valuable insights into the current state of the market and its potential direction. Below are some of the key takeaways from those conversations:

Rates & Treasury Outlook

A September rate cut is highly likely, with the potential for up to three cuts this year.
The 10-Year Treasury may rise following cuts, as it did last year, or remain steady with cuts already priced in.
Long-term average for the 10-Year Treasury sits at 4.25%.

Capital Markets & Lending Sentiment

Despite headlines, the “Wall of Debt” is being managed with minimal distress.
Distress is concentrated in office, CMBS, and some multifamily, but maturities are largely being resolved.
Several life companies are considering floating-rate programs to help borrowers with near-term maturities who don’t want to lock in long-term.
Some lenders are loosening LTV/DSCR standards (with pricing premiums) to meet borrower demand.
Overall tone was cautiously positive: many lenders are competing again, with rates in the mid-5% range.

Property Sector Trends

Multifamily & Industrial: Remain top targets for life companies; multifamily competition increasing as banks step back in.
Office: Financing selectively done—mainly suburban and low-basis deals with strong occupancy. Some markets are showing early positive absorption.
Retail: Momentum slowing, though still in focus for some lenders.
Self-Storage: Continued appetite across multiple platforms.
Construction: Activity is slowing due to higher borrowing, labor, and material costs.

Investor Activity

CRE transactions are increasing, with private investors driving ~60% of deal volume.
Institutional investors have significant capital on the sidelines and are expected to re-enter the market soon.
Looking ahead, 2026 is expected to be a strong year with new programs and increased lending volumes.

About PSRS

Founded in 1972, Pacific Southwest Realty Services (PSRS) is one of the largest privately-held commercial mortgage banking firms in the Western United States. Our funding sources include major life insurance companies, banks, credit companies, CMBS and institutional investors.

Access to diverse capital sources insures a high level of success in arranging commercial real estate loans, apartment loans, mezzanine loans, and equity transactions that our clients have come to expect.

Our long-term lending relationships give us greater latitude in solving problems and closing loans in a timely manner.

After the loan funds, our experienced, in-house servicing team handles many issues such as assumptions, lease approvals, payoffs, insurance and many other similar matters.